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Do You Think The Atlanta Falcons Will Go To The SB?
Simple question.
I think they might have a shot if they get home field advantage. They are almost unbeatable at home under Matt Ryan/Mike Smith. I hope they do, but it'll be hard. I think they have a shot though. My dream Super Bowl mathup: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots.
Yes, I think they have a very good chance and your prediction is identical to mine. The Patriots are playing the best football in the NFL at this point. There is no other team even playing close to the level they are at the moment. Beginning with the 2nd half of their Thanksgiving game against the Lions, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 104-3. Who are those opponents? The 9-3 Jets and the 9-3 Bears.
Back to your question about the Falcons. When I look at a team and their long-term success, I look at two statistics. Statistics in football are largely irresponsible and inaccurate but there are a couple that have value.
3rd down conversion %: This statistic shows that the team is deep. They have the ability to extend drives, keep their defense off the field, keep the opponent's defense on the field, run the ball, pass the ball and they have fantastic coaching. They can chew up the clock when the need to and have a strong offensive line. The Falcons are the #1 team in the league in this category at 48.1% and are in good company because the Saints, Colts and Patriots round out the top four teams. This stat shows that nearly half of their 3rd downs turn into 1st downs. To make it mean even more, the last place team is the Cardinals with 26.5%.
Turnover differential: Your offense simply cannot turn the ball over. Turnovers are the best way to evaluate the winners and losers of the game. If you can only ask for one stat after a game to determine who won and lost, this should be the one you're asking for. It ruins your field position, changes the game plan and puts your defense in bad predicaments. Your defense must also be able to make plays. Of course you're looking for a defense who can plug up the middle and shut down the receivers but the teams who win super bowls are the ones who pressure the quarterback, force him to throw awkwardly and take advantage of his mistakes. The Falcons have forced 25 turnovers as a defense and rank 4th in the NFL in terms of differential at +10 behind the Eagles, Steelers and Patriots.
The Falcons will most likely host Vick and the Eagles in the NFC championship which will absolutely be a joy to watch and I think the Falcons would have no problem stopping them.
2010 Atlanta Falcons